Spain is reportedly considering a potential energy blackout for Morocco following an unprecedented crisis in Ceuta, where Moroccan attempts to invade the city with a "Blue March," also known as "March of Slippers and Corpses," led to widespread disruption. This crisis unfolded during an exceptionally hot summer in Ceuta, a period marked by significant social and environmental challenges. Ceuta's streets, beaches, sidewalks, and gardens became filled with people, creating an overwhelming situation for the city's infrastructure and residents. In response to the influx, temporary housing constructed from cloth, reeds, plastic, and tin was erected in all city facilities, noting the severity of the humanitarian situation.
During this period, Ceuta residents lived in fear, often unable to venture outside or even open their windows, as streets filled with waste and garbage. The city's morgues also became overwhelmed with drowned migrants, showing the tragic human cost of the events. The city transformed into what was widely described as a Moroccan city filled with chaos and dirt, reflecting the profound impact on urban life and public order. Despite the gravity of the situation, the Spanish government initially took no action against Morocco and issued no comment or threat regarding the events in Ceuta. However, on August 18, RTVE reported that the government of Pedro Sánchez requested data on oil, gas, and electricity exchanges with Morocco from major Spanish energy companies, a report the Spanish government officially denied. The publication of this RTVE report reportedly caused considerable satisfaction and joy in Spain, while simultaneously generating shock in Rabat, indicating the sensitive nature of energy relations between the two nations.
Energy Deterrence Strategy
In the wake of these events, specialists are currently engaged in discussions regarding potential measures Spain could implement to deter Morocco. These experts emphasize that Morocco, in their view, responds primarily to force and tangible field deterrence. Algeria is frequently cited by these specialists as an example of a state that has successfully deterred Morocco through decisive actions. Algeria’s approach, which included cutting diplomatic relations, closing its airspace, and halting gas supplies, is presented as a model for confronting what is perceived as Moroccan expansion.
Within this context, Spain is being advised to consider cutting off gas supplies to Morocco as the sole available action to curb what is perceived as Moroccan expansionist tendencies. Public sentiment among Spaniards also indicates a strong call for their government to cut gas to Morocco and sever diplomatic relations. Many observers consider the idea of using energy cut-offs, specifically gas and electricity, as a deterrent against Morocco to be strongly on the Spanish agenda. This perspective is further bolstered by Spanish strategic specialists who are actively publishing articles and studies emphasizing the importance of punishing Morocco by cutting off energy sources, reinforcing the notion that such measures are gaining traction within policy discussions.
Morocco's Energy Vulnerability
Morocco depends on approximately 25 percent of its electricity supply from Spain, noting a significant point of energy interdependence. All gas quantities Morocco purchases from the international market must pass through Spain's Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) regasification terminals, granting Spain considerable leverage over Morocco's gas imports. Eduardo Segovia, writing in The Objective, stated unequivocally that Spain possesses the capability to cut off both gas and electricity supplies to Morocco at any time, a claim that shows Morocco's energy vulnerability.
Morocco is widely considered the weakest country in the region regarding energy utilization, a factor that makes it particularly susceptible to disruptions in supply. The country reportedly obtains Russian gas illegally, which must then pass through Spain's refineries and the Spanish-Algerian pipeline. However, the Algerian-Spanish pipeline has been inoperative since Algeria ceased its operation years ago. Passing gas through this pipeline is deemed illegal because Morocco did not contribute financially to its construction, adding a layer of complexity and legal dispute to its energy transit.
Geopolitical Interpretations
Algeria's decision to cease pumping gas through the pipeline via Morocco is interpreted by some as a punitive measure against Morocco for perceived threats to Algeria, reinforcing the idea that energy can be a tool of geopolitical leverage. The RTVE report, which detailed Spain's inquiry into energy exchanges with Morocco, reportedly caused considerable satisfaction in Spain while simultaneously generating shock in Rabat, illustrating the divergent reactions to potential energy-related actions.
Spaniards interpret the restoration of relations between Spain and Algeria as a strategic maneuver that Morocco reportedly did not fully comprehend, suggesting a miscalculation on Morocco's part regarding regional diplomatic shifts. Conversely, Morocco interprets the renewed diplomatic ties between Algeria and Spain in two distinct ways: either as a sign of Spain retreating from its support for Moroccan autonomy plans, or as a clandestine initiative aimed at economically stifling Morocco by disrupting its gas supply. These differing interpretations highlight the complex and often opposing perspectives within the region regarding energy and diplomatic actions, showing the deep-seated mistrust and strategic maneuvering at play.